Indexation: will your variable tariff for gas and electricity go up or down in January?  It depends on your contract

Indexation: will your variable tariff for gas and electricity go up or down in January? It depends on your contract

According to our calculations, if the month ended here, the price per kwh of gas for an EAsy contract would be set at 15 cent for the whole of the first quarter of 2023. That is a price equivalent to the price of monthly-type contracts such as Flow for January. But as the trend is down and the level has come down very sharply, it is likely that the index, calculated on the average price, will still be a little lower at the end of the month… and the prices too, therefore .

  • Contracts with monthly indexation: a status quo?

Unlike electricity, “monthly” contracts for gas do not all use the same index: some (like “Flow” at Engie) are based on “future” prices (with subsequent supply) to determine the prices for the following month, the others are, as for electricity, based on the “spot” prices (immediate supply) for the current month to determine the tariff applied during the month in question. For those, we won’t know the December price until the end of the month. As prices first rose at the beginning of December compared to those of November, before falling sharply in recent days, it is quite possible that we are moving towards a status quo for these prices in the immediate future.

But it would bean advantageous status quo for the consumer since we had returned in November to a reasonable index level, even if very much higher than the levels at the start of 2021.

For the rest, everything depends on the evolution of the courses:

  • if the market price in January and the following months continues to fall compared to December, monthly-type contracts will be more attractive.
  • If prices go upit is the quarterly contracts, of the Easy type, which will be the most interesting.